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Prediction for CME (2024-10-03T20:36:00-CME-001)

CME Observed Time: 2024-10-03T20:36Z
iSWAS Layout URL: https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/CME/33733/-1
CME Note: PRELIMINARY: CME with an auriform presentation in both the outline of its bulk and shock, seen to the west in SOHO. Associated with a strong eruption from AR3843 near S10W50 following an M6.7-class flare; an EUV wave is seen in SDO 193 and GOES 284. May potentially have arrived as a magnetic field enhancement near 2024-10-07T22:12Z embedded in ongoing arrival signature which started 2024-10-06; further analysis of this event is currently ongoing.
CME Shock Arrival Time: 2024-10-07T22:12Z
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters due to CME:
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Predicted Arrival Time: 2024-10-06T00:00Z
Predicted geomagnetic storm max Kp range due to CME: 4.0 - 6.0
Prediction Method: WSA-ENLIL + Cone (BoM)
Prediction Method Note:

Please enter the following information for your prediction:
BoM ENLIL settings: 
ENLIL version: 2.7
Grid: 256x30x90
Resolution: low
Ambient settings: 
Ejecta settings: 
WSA version: 2.2
GONG: 

CME input parameters
Time at 21.5Rs boundary: 03/2331 UT
Radial velocity (km/s): 1172
Longitude (deg): W30
Latitude (deg): S12
Half-angular width (deg): 45

Notes:

Lead Time: 71.70 hour(s)
Difference: 46.20 hour(s)
Prediction submitted by Duty Forecaster (ASWFC) on 2024-10-04T22:30Z

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